2012 Australian Open Finals Preview

Ok folks…I’ll be completely honest, it’s nearly impossible for me not to think of the upcoming Superbowl, but I’ll do my best to put those feelings aside and focus on the matches this weekend. Both of which should be pretty spectacular.

Maria Sharapova vs. Victoria Azarenka

In a match that if I am awake to watch I will almost certainly do so on mute, expect a close fought battle that will most likely go the distance. What is so intriguing about this match is that not only is the year’s first Grand Slam Title on the line, but WTA #1 as well. No matter who wins, she will replace Wozniacki as the top ranked player in the world, putting to bed (for the time being) the whole “can you really be #1 without a slam title” debate. What I like about this matchup is like I said, it will be close and probably filled with drama. What don’t I like? Close & dramatic does not always equal good tennis.

Sharapova, especially her serve, has gotten the proverbial “yips” on numerous big occasions throughout the years. And then you’ve got a first time Slam finalist in Azarenka, would anyone be shocked if the moment got to her? I know I wouldn’t be. Perhaps her experience as a three time doubles Grand Slam runner-up will help her out somehow. Prediction: In what I expect to be a three-setter, and possibly ugly at times, I’ll go with Sharapova to win her 4th Grand Slam.

Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray

Oh, wait…my bad. I forgot both of these guys blew pretty good chances of making it to the finals.

Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal

Let’s face it, this is really, really intriguing on so many levels. Is Djokovic 100% or will he struggle with his breathing again? How much will a full extra day of rest benefit Nadal? Is Djokovic still in Nadal’s head after winning all six of their matchups in 2011? What’s up with this injury Nadal had before the tournament?

These questions and more make it an absolutely fascinating final. It will really set the tone for the year for both of these guys. If Djokovic wins, he is telling the world that the end of 2011 was just an aberration, and to look out for another 8 months or so of complete dominance. Should Nadal take the title, I’d expect these two to battle it out all year…and no way will this rivalry be so one sided going forward.

Prediction: I really have no rhyme or reason for this, but I think Nadal is going to win in four close sets. I just hope the loser doesn’t immediately bring up some sort of physical ailment…

Happy watching everyone!

 

 

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Australian Open Links

I have a confession to make: I’m getting old. So old in fact that it’s hard for me to make it past 11pm most nights, meaning of course that it makes it extremely difficult to partake in too much Australian Open viewing. As a result, all I’ve got to offer you is the thoughts of others. Enjoy, happy reading, happy watching, and go Pats!

Greg Garber on Roger Federer & good ole’ motivation.

So, lots of anger & fines going on Down Under!

Speaking of anger…I can watch this clip of Marcos Baghdatis multiple times and not get tired of it. I know it’s not the best example, but it’s entertaining!

Five takeaways from Day 4…including the rationalization of racquet smashing.

Peter Bodo on the Big Men of Tennis.

Great piece on the psyche of Victoria Azarenka.

A recap of some 1st week highlights from Steve Tignor.

Latest Wertheim mailbag.

Finally, the new head of the ATP apparently understands the complaints from his players…question is, will he eventually do something about it?

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2012 Australian Open Preview

Who will be holding this in 2 weeks?

So, I face a bit of a conundrum with this blog. Most weeks, Friday is the only day where I have enough time to write. Stupid things like google adword campaigns, emails, banner ads, and social media get in the way. Oh wait, those things are my job…I hope my boss doesn’t read this. Back to my point – by Friday my brain is mushy enough that it’s difficult for me to form a coherent blog post. As a result, you get a bunch of random thoughts in random order. I hope that’s ok with you. If it’s not, feel free to tell my boss and maybe I’ll get to skip the whole adwords thing so I can blog better. With that out of the way, here are my thoughts on the Australian Open Draws.

- #1 Seed Novak Djokovic can’t be thrilled with his draw. He should breeze through the first 2 rounds, and then might face a minor speed bump in the 3rd against the likes of Stepanek. In the round of 16, he’ll most likely face HUGE serving Milos Raonic or BIG serving Andy Roddick. He’d obviously be a heavy favorite against either, but with their serves, along with both players having lots to prove (Raonic that he is here to stay, and Roddick that he is not done yet), look for a dogfight. Following that, his 1/4 final would be against fellow Serbian Tipsarevic or the always dangerous David Ferrer.

- On the other hand, #2 Seed Rafa Nadal has about an easy a draw as a high seed can have in this day and age. His quarter is filled with talented players who routinely come up short in big situations – Lopez, Almagro, Berdych, Wawrinka are the biggest names there. While they all have the potential to challenge Rafa, can any of you see them beating him in a best of 5 set match? Didn’t think so.

- Federer should have little trouble (maybe a 4 setter against Melzer in the 3rd round) until the round of 16, where he’d face last year’s Australian Open surprise Alexandr Dolgopolov. If he gets through that match – top seeded American Mardy Fish or Juan Martin del Potro will most likely await him, neither of which will be an easy task. However, like most places he goes, Federer will be the “hometown” favorite and have the crowd supporting him just about the entire way through. Unless of course he plays Aussie Bernard Tomic instead of Dolgopolov.

- I’d discuss Murray more, but I think we all know he will most likely do what he does best: get through his quarter with a couple of exciting matches (especially against Tsonga in the quarters), and then lose in the semifinals to Djokovic.

- 1st Round Match to watch: 22nd seeded Fernando Verdasco vs. Bernard Tomic. Tough draw for the seed here – Tomic is ranked just outside the seeds at 37th & will have his home country behind him. This could go the distance…

- The top quarter of the Women’s Draw might be the most intriguing in Grand Slam History. Highlighted by two Grand Slam winners – Clijsters & Li Na, as well as the current #1 Wozniacki, and former #1 Jankovic. Your guess is as good as mine as to who comes out of this alive.

- Everyone’s favorite, or least favorite, American Serena Williams is in the 3rd quarter, and unless something freaky happens early, she looks to have a relatively clear path to at least the quarters. Looming there is likely to be Zvonareva. If that matchup occurs, I’ll stay up all hours of the night to make sure I get to watch it. Sharapova is the top seed in that quarter and if she makes it through, would play the Williams-Zvonareva winner to advance to the final four.

- Finally, the bottom quarter of the Women’s Draw holds the potential quarterfinal matchup between heir apparent to the throne Petra Kvitova & Sam Stosur. I think I speak for most when I write that I’m really looking forward to that battle and will be kind of disappointed if it doesn’t happen. To do so, Stosur will have to overcome the pressure she feels in her home country, as her best appearance down under has only been the 4th round. Hopefully this is the year she does it.

 

 

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2012 ATP & WTA Tennis Preview

Happy New Year everyone! I’m just going to throw a bunch of random thoughts that I have in my head regarding the 2012 tennis season at you. Just know that I don’t really like writing, but it’s such a big part of my life I have no choice but to do it. So for those of you who are big fans of mine, just know my heart isn’t really in it. For those that don’t get this joke, please click here.

- Actually let’s start with Serena. It’s not that I don’t appreciate her honesty, it’s that I’m not quite sure why she would bother confessing this, given how hard it has been for her to retain fans over the past couple years. I’d predict how her season will go, but at this point it’s almost impossible. Would it surprise me to her win 2 slams and dominate when she chooses to play? Not really. But I could also envision a year with more drama and no big titles.

- I’d like to think Andy Murray’s hiring of Ivan Lendl will help him win a Grand Slam…but I just don’t see it happening. There is always the chance that he gets lucky and avoids Djokovic & Nadal en route to a title, but I can’t for the life of me envision Murray beating one of those two in a semi or final in one of the slams.

- Roger Federer will win a Grand Slam this year. Most likely Wimbledon, possibly the US Open, and there is a slim chance he even takes both. I don’t think he has been desperate enough the last couple of years. He peaked from ’05-’09 or so, and the last couple of years he hasn’t been the same player. But now I think he knows the end of his career is near, and that will be enough for him to reach back to his peak for one more fortnight.

- Caroline Wozniacki will not win a slam this year, nor will she finish the year ranked #1. It just seems to me that every time she runs into one of the big hitters that also has some consistency, she has an incredibly hard time keeping up. And in a slam, you usually don’t just run into one of those gals…

- Speaking of hard hitting females that show consistency as well, I can’t recall a year in which just about everyone thinks one player is going to dominate the rest of the WTA field. Even in the mid aughts, there was Venus, Serena, and the Belgians. As of today though, I’m pretty sure experts think Petra Kvitova is going to go undefeated in 2012. Well, she might not go undefeated…but I think 2 slam titles and a year end #1 ranking is a pretty good bet.

- Holy cow, nearly 500 words in and not one mention of Djokovic or Nadal! That’s easily explainable…it’s boring. Barring injury, they will both win at least one grand slam title and finish 1-2 (in some order) at the end of the year. Seriously, I’d be an idiot to predict anything else, and quite frankly I bored even myself writing that sentence.

- Holy cow, over 500 words in and not one mention of an American man! American fans will continue to complain about American mens tennis, because we were spoiled by the Connors/McEnroe and Sampras/Agassi eras. Meanwhile, vets like Fish & Roddick will continue to put up solid (and sometimes spectacular) results. In addition, youngsters like Isner, Querrey (injury comeback hopeful!), Young & Harrison will continue to improve.

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Friday Tennis Links Round 2

Ok folks, been a super busy week here at Grand Slam Tennis Tours – planning our Davis Cup package, getting our new online pro shop ready, and the whole holidays being just around the corner thing – so the only thing I can offer you today is the ‘best of’ in tennis writing this week. Enjoy!

This might focus on the “worst” of 2011, but still a must read from Peter Bodo.

Start here, and keep following as Ravi Ubha posts his Top 100 Memories from 2011.

I’ll give you one guess for the Shot of the Year.

Some terrific insider type info, again courtesy of Bodo.

Maybe it’s because our financial markets are in such upheaval, but I love it when players are compared to stocks.

Another awesome edition of Wertheim’s Tennis Mailbag.

ATP Year in Review. WTA Year in Review.

Finally, hard to believe that this guy is now in Russian Parliament!

Imagine if McEnroe ran for Congress?!

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